Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 30.544983 32.766675 35.179829 38.016172 41.285945 44.971632 49.491029
2025-11-02 27.337324 30.316678 33.759683 38.104896 43.553933 50.328143 59.684139
2025-11-09 24.858670 28.068890 31.908326 36.958320 43.626776 52.466346 65.754079
2025-11-16 22.962690 26.260312 30.302607 35.784208 43.314522 53.823458 70.805368
2025-11-23 22.168130 25.699679 30.145855 36.383499 45.351352 58.665488 82.274590
2025-11-30 21.249753 24.888828 29.564339 36.299715 46.344337 62.054129 92.344704
2025-12-07 20.341986 24.018113 28.817794 35.881470 46.740326 64.501764 101.478608
2025-12-14 19.119740 22.661004 27.320080 34.247771 45.057137 63.140448 102.338251
2025-12-21 18.606831 22.216613 27.037278 34.352646 46.113583 66.726142 115.497985
2025-12-28 18.239058 21.942175 26.963943 34.748289 47.670336 71.519660 134.188166
2026-01-04 17.533743 21.171381 26.141655 33.928091 47.064940 71.974059 141.357310
2026-01-11 17.283976 21.014737 26.185428 34.451602 48.846136 77.663317 168.705859
2026-01-18 17.000621 20.878036 26.364858 35.404786 51.929563 88.051932 232.292608
2026-01-25 16.485466 20.397390 26.020568 35.502882 53.519847 95.951532 311.063881
2026-02-01 15.754640 19.563255 25.079562 34.488039 52.714099 97.342878 358.932021
2026-02-08 15.080684 18.779915 24.170280 33.448439 51.707936 97.901412 408.059596
2026-02-15 14.826510 18.593693 24.165873 33.979561 54.089842 109.616501 699.570193
2026-02-22 14.458819 18.220544 23.842651 33.905355 55.136980 117.823023 1236.830507
2026-03-01 14.056040 17.776831 23.381015 33.534671 55.445667 123.731829 2510.019793
2026-03-08 13.454090 17.013825 22.374263 32.082967 53.020396 118.170225 2337.458972
2026-03-15 13.206095 16.774413 22.199541 32.176341 54.317719 128.373353 67123.278371
2026-03-22 13.024728 16.627306 22.164635 32.528370 56.320522 143.458489 NaN
2026-03-29 12.646262 16.166211 21.592675 31.798189 55.450178 144.408125 NaN